双语•智库 | 特朗普访华议题中的这件大事 该怎么敲定？

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本期为第七期，智库文章选自美国知名智库加图研究所（Cato Institute），文章内容有删节。

Finding a Better Way to Resolve U.S.-China Trade Conflicts

寻找良策解决中美贸易冲突问题 

Donald Trump will pay a state visit to China from November 8 to 10. In conjunction with the trip, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross is leading a trade mission designed to “promote U.S. exports” and “address trade policy issues with high-level Chinese officials.”

唐纳德·特朗普将于11月8日-10日对中国进行国事访问。美国商务部长威尔伯·罗斯率商贸代表团随行，旨在“促进美国出口”和“与中国高层官员处理贸易政策问题”。

▲11月8日下午，国家主席习近平和夫人彭丽媛在北京故宫博物院迎接来华进行国事访问的美国总统特朗普和夫人梅拉尼娅

This visit could have an important impact on the U.S.-China trade relationship over the rest of President Trump’s time in office. Past efforts by the Trump administration to deal with trade tensions have mainly focused on smaller trade irritants. Trump’s visit to China is an opportunity to begin to address many of the larger U.S.-China trade conflicts.

此次访问可能会对特朗普总统任期内的中美贸易关系产生重要影响。过去特朗普政府在处理贸易紧张局势时，主要集中在较小的贸易刺激上。而此次特朗普访华为解决中美较大的贸易冲突提供了机会。

Just prior to President Trump’s meeting with China’s President Xi in April 2017, which led to a “100-Day Action Plan” on trade under the framework of the U.S.-China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, we published a Free Trade Bulletin making the case for a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as a way to address U.S.-China trade issues.

特朗普总统于2017年4月与中国主席习近平进行了会晤，双方达成了在中美全面经济对话框架下的经济合作百日计划。而在此之前，我们为全面的自由贸易协定刊发了一份自由贸易公报，以解决中美贸易问题。

▲当地时间2017年4月6日，国家主席习近平在美国佛罗里达州海湖庄园同美国总统特朗普举行中美元首会晤。新华社记者 兰红光 摄

THE 100-DAY ACTION PLAN

百日计划

The 100-Day Action Plan was instituted in April 2017, and in May treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin, commerce secretary Wilbur Ross, and Chinese vice premier Wang Yang announced an agreement on the initial list of items to be covered by the plan. President Trump touted the agreement by tweeting, “China just agreed that the U.S. will be allowed to sell beef, and other major products, into China once again. It is REAL news!” Secretary Ross called the deal “a new high” in the U.S.-China relationship, “pretty much a Herculean accomplishment,” and “more than has been done in the whole history of U.S.-China relations on trade.”

“百日计划”于2017年4月提出，5月美国财政部长史蒂芬·努钦、商务部长威尔伯·罗斯和中国国务院副总理汪洋宣布了“百日计划”覆盖的初始项目协议。美国总统特朗普发推文支持称：“中国刚刚同意美国将牛肉和其他主要产品再次销往中国，这才是真正的新闻！”商务部长罗斯称这将让中美关系“再创新高”“是宏伟的成就”，并且“可以与中美经贸关系史所有成果加在一起来比肩”。

The plan makes progress in a few areas. The plan covers 10 items, which address particular concerns of either the United States or China. Of the 10 items, 5 were concerns raised by the United States and 5 by China, ranging from trade in goods (beef, poultry, biotechnology products, liquid natural gas exports), to financial services, to symbolic gestures (America’s recognition of China’s “One Belt, One Road Initiative”). All the issues described in the plan have been addressed to some extent, but the plan’s obligations were so vague and general that nominal fulfillment was easy and the actual impact on the market is difficult to assess.

“百日计划”确实在一些领域取得了进展。该计划包括中美各方特别关注的10项内容，双方各提出5项，涉及商品贸易（牛肉、家禽、生物技术产品、液化天然气出口），金融服务以及象征性姿态（美国认可的中国“一带一路”倡议）。计划中所述的所有议题在一定程度上得到了解决，但该计划的责任义务写得有点笼统，所以名义上的履行很容易，但对市场的实际影响则难以评估。

China fulfilled its commitment by signing a protocol with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the first shipment of beef was sent to China in June.

中国履行了自己的承诺，在与美国农业部签署协议后，第一批美国牛肉于6月份销往中国。

NEGOTIATING AN FTA

自由贸易协定磋商

After the 100-Day Action Plan, the United States and China were supposed to start the negotiation of a one-year plan during the first Comprehensive Economic Dialogue on July 19, 2017. The visit by President Trump and Secretary Ross to China in November will provide another opportunity for progress.

“百日计划”后，2017年7月19日，在首轮中美全面经济对话上，双方确认开展中美经济合作一年计划。11月，特朗普和罗斯的中国之行将为双方提供另一发展机遇。

While it is helpful to address smaller lingering issues, such as those in the 100-Day Action Plan, putting these unconnected issues in simple and short declarations within a brief, unenforceable document does not constitute a broader trade strategy. Instead, the United States should consider negotiating a deep and comprehensive FTA with China.

虽然这有助于应对“百日计划”中搁置的琐事，但把这些互不相关的事务写进简短的声明，并纳入一份简明扼要、没有执行效力的文件，无法形成更大的贸易战略。相反，美国应考虑与中国协商一份深入全面的自由贸易协定。

An FTA negotiation will be an opportunity to address Chinese tariffs on beef and other products and to take on nontariff barriers as well. An FTA provides a stable and predictable legal framework, including an enforcement mechanism. It also offers a forum for future discussion of trade issues, including sensitive conversations about regulatory differences.

自贸协定磋商将为解决中国对牛肉和其他产品征收关税的问题、采取非关税壁垒提供机遇。自贸协定不仅能搭建起稳定的、可预见的法律框架，将执行机制囊括在内，还为日后商讨贸易事项提供了平台，比如就监管分歧等敏感问题展开对话。

Intellectual property and technology transfer have been particular areas of concern, and in September, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative initiated an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 into these issues. There is no doubt that negotiations here would be difficult. However, just sitting down to talk in a serious manner could help each side better understand the other’s perspective. And if an agreement could be reached in this area, it would pave the way for more trade and investment and lead to greatly improved relations between the two countries.

知识产权和技术转让是备受关注的领域。9月美国贸易代表办公室根据《1974年贸易法》中的301条款对这些领域展开调查，谈判无疑会十分艰难，但坐下来认真商榷有助于双方更好地了解彼此立场。如果能在这个领域达成协议，将会为更多贸易和投资铺平道路，极大增进两国关系。

CONCLUSION

结论

The Trump administration needs to develop a more comprehensive approach to trade liberalization with China in order to accomplish something more substantial. The beef deal offers an illustration of the limited market impact of small deals. More fundamental and systemic issues, such as tariffs and the wide range of nontariff barriers, play a large role in international trade and cannot be resolved with quick meetings and dialogues.

特朗普政府需要就对华贸易自由化采取更全面的措施，以此取得更实质性的成果。牛肉交易体现出小笔买卖在市场影响力上的局限性，像关税和大范围非关税壁垒这些更实质更系统的问题在国际贸易中发挥着重要作用，不是快速会谈和对话就能解决的。

In beef and other sectors, if the United States wants to achieve liberalization of the Chinese market, it needs to consider deeper engagement, and it must be willing to negotiate. An FTA negotiation presents an opportunity for the two nations to sit down and discuss tariffs and nontariff issues, exchange views, and make compromises. Some countries have already done this with China, and more are following their lead. When the rest of the world is negotiating trade agreements, American businesses will be better off if the United States is in the game rather than sitting on the sidelines.

在牛肉和其他行业，如果美国想实现中国市场的自由化，就必须考虑更深层的参与，并且愿意协商。自贸协定磋商意味着两国有机会坐下来探讨关税及非关税事宜、交流意见、做出让步。有些国家已经与中国有过这样的实践，还有很多国家正在效仿。当全世界其他国家都在协商贸易协定，美国只有参与其中而不是做旁观者，才能让自己的商业更加繁荣。

相关译词：

state visit  国事访问

Secretary of Commerce  商务部长

trade mission  商贸代表团

Free Trade Agreement (FTA)  自由贸易协定

unilateral threats  单边威胁

intellectual property  知识产权

technology transfer  技术转让

Secretary of the Treasury  财政部长

Herculean accomplishment  巨大的成就（赫拉克勒斯是希腊神话中最伟大的英雄，完成了12项被誉为“不可能完成”的任务）

the first Comprehensive Economic Dialogue  首轮中美全面经济对话

nontariffbarrier  非关税壁垒

legal framework  法律框架

pave the way for  为…做好准备，为…铺平道路

at an impasse  陷入僵局

trade liberalization  51 29598 51 15287 0 0 1653 0 0:00:17 0:00:09 0:00:08 2653 51 29598 51 15287 0 0 1492 0 0:00:19 0:00:10 0:00:09 2934 51 29598 51 15287 0 0 1359 0 0:00:21 0:00:11 0:00:10 2935 51 29598 51 15287 0 0 1248 0 0:00:23 0:00:12 0:00:11 2935易自由化

be better off  境况富裕

本文作者：Simon Lester, Huan Zhu
编译：Yee君 

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